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Retrospective and Prospective for 2023

Driven by the fastest rate hike cycle in 30 years, markets responded as one might have expected in hindsight. Inflation and policy drove the narrative and were the most written about topics in our Two Minute Tuesday (TMT) pieces over the past year. Blockchain, Oil, China and Valuations were among the many important topics which provided additional perspective during the year.

Recapping 2022, what were the most popular TMT topics?



2022 TMT Word Cloud

Not surprisingly, Inflation was a major topic throughout 2022 as it persisted through a “transitory” phase and grew to 40-year highs in June. Particularly in the 3rd quarter of 2022 a host of new themes emerged of similar importance (based on size of font).

Perhaps more compelling were new topics covering fundamental economic indicators such as Labor Markets, Growth and Interest Rates. As markets digest these economic particulars, alongside a higher rate environment, we believe valuations may be more tethered to fundamentals in 2023.

Other new topics included insight into sectors (Consumer, Housing and Commodities) and investment themes such as Fundamentals and Liquidity. 

Supply Chain congestion and Energy markets were also relevant in 2022. We feel these fundamental topics have staying power and are likely to resurface in the coming year.

Work from Home, and its impact on commercial real estate office space valuations, along with the challenges in both private equity and debt markets also emerged as salient topics. We will continue to monitor these interrelationships as we head into 2023.

Wrapping up 2022, we are monitoring three critical indicators that may establish the tone and rhythm of the markets for 2023: Government Bond Liquidity, Money Supply and Housing Prices.

Embarking into 2023, we wish everyone a safe and prosperous year!


Important Disclosures & Definitions

Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results; current performance may be higher or lower than performance quoted.

One may not invest directly in an index.

AAI000206  03/31/2024

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