The aging US population is one of the most transformative demographic trends of the past several decades, if not the last century.
Since the initial wave of Baby Boomer retirements began in 2011, the demographic shift toward an older population has accelerated. According to US Census projections, the proportion of adults aged 65 and older will rise from 1 in 6 to 1 in 4 over the next four decades.
Changes in demographic trends can directly influence long-term demand for goods and services. With a rapidly aging and growing population, demand for senior housing and related services is expected to dramatically increase.
According to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), demand for senior housing is near all-time highs, with the national occupancy rate at 88.1% in the second quarter, driven by robust net absorption in both independent living and assisted living.1
Yet senior housing inventory growth has stalled, with growth below 1% for the first time since NIC began tracking data in 2006.1 NIC reports that approximately 4,000 new senior living units will be developed in 2025–2026, but projected demand growth necessitates roughly 100,000 new beds each year through 2040.2
Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), the two largest REITs focused on senior housing, are well positioned to benefit from this historic transition and the growing supply-demand imbalance.
Investors have taken notice, with both firms outperforming the S&P 500 Index and the broader REIT index over the past year, as they delivered strong earnings growth, high occupancy levels and measured capital outlays.
With more than 10,000 Boomers turning 653 every day, the supply-demand imbalance for senior housing is unlikely to be resolved in the foreseeable future, providing a compelling growth catalyst for these two REITs.
Important Disclosures & Definitions
1 Clapp, Caroline. (July 17, 2025). Senior Housing Occupancy Rises in 2Q 2025; Inventory Growth at Record Lows. National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC).
2 Olick, Diana. (August 19, 2025). The Senior Living Market Can’t Keep Up with Demand as Boomers Age. CNBC Property Play.
3 United States Census Bureau. (June 2025). National Population by Characteristics: 2020-2024.
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AAI000985 08/26/2026