Conventional retirement wisdom says investors should become more conservative with age, gradually shifting from equities into bonds to preserve capital. But research suggests that this approach may be backwards, or at least incomplete. Starting retirement conservatively and increasing equity exposure over time may actually reduce the risk of running out of money.
This idea, known as a "rising equity glidepath," emerged from research by Wade Pfau and Michael Kitces published in the Journal of Financial Planning in 2014.1 They found that portfolios beginning retirement with roughly 30–40% in equities and gradually rising to 60–80% over two decades had a lower probability of failure than traditional declining strategies. The reason lies in sequence-of-returns risk: when markets decline early in retirement and retirees are forced to sell equities to fund withdrawals, the portfolio loses shares at the worst possible time. If the retiree has shifted heavily into bonds by then, they miss the eventual recovery.
In their follow-up paper, Pfau and Kitces extended the analysis to include valuation sensitivity, showing that rising glidepaths are particularly powerful when retirement begins in an overvalued market.2 Starting conservatively limits exposure to potential early-cycle drawdowns, while later-stage increases capture equity recoveries once valuations normalize.
Beyond the math, rising glidepaths align with investor behavior. Kitces observed in 2020 that popular "bucket" strategies—where retirees spend down cash and bonds before tapping stocks—often replicate a similar effect, as equity exposure naturally rises over time. Framing the strategy in this way can help clients feel anchored to a safety reserve even as their overall risk exposure grows.
Despite being published over a decade ago, rising glidepaths seem to still be a fringe idea. The $4 trillion target-date fund industry continues to use declining glidepaths, with major providers like Vanguard reducing equity exposure from 90% at career start to 40% or less by retirement, then either declining further or holding steady.3,4 This represents an opportunity for advisors to differentiate their retirement planning approach with peer-reviewed research that challenges conventional wisdom.
Today's market backdrop makes this research especially relevant. With bond yields normalized from historic lows, equity valuations elevated and longevity risk increasing, retirees face competing pressures between safety and growth.5,6,7 A rising equity glidepath in retirement offers a disciplined compromise: protect early, participate later.
The strategy does require disciplined rebalancing and may challenge clients' psychological comfort with increasing risk as they age, which may explain why it remains uncommon despite strong empirical support. But for advisors willing to have that conversation, the payoff is clear.
The lesson is profound: risk in retirement isn't just about volatility—it's about timing. Advisors willing to challenge the conventional glidepath may find that starting conservatively and allowing equity exposure to rise offers clients better protection against the one risk that matters most: running out of money.
Important Disclosures & Definitions
1 Pfau, W.D. & Kitces, M.E. (2014). Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide-Path. Journal of Financial Planning.
2 Kitces, M.E. & Pfau, W.D. (September 16, 2014). Retirement Risk, Rising Equity Glidepaths, and Valuation-Based Asset Allocation. Social Science Research Network.
3 Rohr, J. Y. (April 30, 2025). Target-Date Funds Have Delivered. Morningstar.
4 Vanguard. (February 21, 2025).TDF Glide-Path Essentials: Setting the right starting point. Insights & Research, Investments.
5 Source for normalized bond yields claim: Bloomberg and SS&C ALPS Advisors research. Time period analyzed: 1961-2025. Instrument analyzed: US 10 Year Treasury. While yields are elevated compared to the 2010-2020 decade, they are not abnormally high compared to a longer time horizon.
6 Hulbert, M. (October 27, 2025). The stock market is more overvalued than at almost any time in US history - by virtually any measure . Dow Jones, Morningstar Marketwatch.
7 Olya, G. (October 28, 2025). The Retirement Time Bomb Boomers are Ignoring. Nasdaq, GoBankingRates.
AAI001026 11/04/2026