More than ever, people love publicly declaring someone or something as the “G.O.A.T.”, or Greatest of All Time. Rarely is this objective, and frequently the social media-sphere erupts with indignation about any particular declaration—but it drives clicks! But how did this all start?
GOAT, in its greatest sense, doesn’t seem to exist prior to 1992, when Muhammad Ali’s wife used the acronym to incorporate an entity that owns the great boxer’s intellectual property. Self-promotion by Penny Hardaway and LL Cool J in the late ‘90s followed. Then, in the last fifteen years or so, the term gradually became ubiquitous on the heals of general agreement related to Tom Brady, Serena Williams, and Lionel Messi owning their respective sports crown as GOAT.
Wanting to get in on the click-bait game, I’ve been looking for my own GOAT. . .and guess what, it’s right in front of me, every day. . . We are in the GOAT earnings cycle US public companies have ever seen!
This strength is not simply a rebound from recession as was the greater than 300% earnings growth off the bottom of 2008. Nor is it temporary inflation-driven growth like we saw in the 1950’s as the Korean War pushed Consumer Prices up 10% in a short two-year period. Instead, this cycle is a convergence of four powerful forces driving cyclical average real growth over 15% for the first time ever.
First, fiscal policy remains unusually supportive for an economy operating near full employment. The Congressional Budget Office projects a 2026 federal deficit of $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with a 50-year average of 3.8%. Government spending, tax incentives, and sustained deficit financing continue to support nominal demand and private-sector revenues. Stuck housing prices are doing the heavy lifting to keep general inflation low enough for earnings to compound well above inflation.
Second, the United States is experiencing an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment boom (in case you haven’t noticed) comparable in scale to the buildout of the railroads, electric grid or internet (or maybe all three). Common estimates show that hyperscaler capital spending alone could exceed $500 billion in 2026. This spending flows well beyond semiconductor companies into power generation, electrical equipment, construction, cooling, networking, software, and financing.
Third, the consumer wealth effect remains exceptionally strong. US household net worth stood near $200 trillion in mid-2026, while household wealth relative to disposable income remained far above its historical average. Elevated and stable home values, equity portfolios, and cash balances have helped sustain consumption despite higher interest rates and uneven wage growth.
Finally, corporations are converting revenue into earnings with unprecedented efficiency. Automation, cloud computing, scalable intellectual property, disciplined hiring, and AI-enabled productivity are allowing output to grow faster than operating expenses. The result is extraordinary margin expansion. The corporate profit share of gross domestic income reached 13.9% in late 2025 and continues to drift higher this year—these are the highest readings extending back to 1947. S&P 500 Index net margins have likewise reached record.
The breadth of the cycle is also unprecedented. Eleven of eleven S&P 500 sectors are expected to post double digit earnings growth in 2026.
| GICS Sector | 2026 Est. EPS Growth - Market Cap Weighted (%) |
| Real Estate | 151.5% |
| Information Technology | 91.4% |
| Energy | 88.3% |
| Health Care | 63.0% |
| Materials | 62.7% |
| Communication Services | 50.2% |
| Consumer Staples | 35.6% |
| Industrials | 32.0% |
| Financials | 27.8% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 15.5% |
| Utilities | 13.4% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of 07/27/2026
The point is not just that earnings are high. It is that their level, persistence, breadth, and trajectory are historically exceptional—the GOAT. Fiscal demand is supporting revenues, AI is creating a new capital-investment cycle, household wealth is sustaining consumption, and corporate efficiency is turning growth into record profitability. Taken together, these forces support the argument that the United States is experiencing the strongest earnings ever.
Important Disclosures & Definitions
S&P 500 Index: Widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.
One may not invest directly in an index.
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